Was the Russian invasion of Ukraine a foreseeable event that could have been predicted by Vladimir Putin’s past actions, a war plan that gestated in his head for years?

Or is it a terrible break with that past, the result of Putin’s separation from reality during two years of pandemic isolation?

Analysts, politicians, security and military experts are arguing over it now.

“I wouldn't want to slip into that temptation to look back and say, ‘We've missed something that was obvious all the way along.’ It wasn't obvious,” said Ben Noble, Russian politics professor at University College London and co-author of ​​”Navalny: Putin's Nemesis, Russia's Future?”