When Armenia was preparing to sign an association agreement with the EU in 2013, leading figures in its dairy industry — one of the country’s largest exporters — had high hopes. Armenia’s geography and climate are akin to the Swiss Alps, perfect for making quality milk. And “you need good milk to make good cheese,” said Armen Gigoyan, head of the country’s Cheese Makers Union.

But what Armenia also needed was help modernizing its dairy industry, which was still reliant on old production methods and quality control procedures. A deal with the EU, Gigoyan believed, would have been the answer. “With our natural gifts, then we could have been able to compete in Europe.”

Just before he was due to sign the deal, however, President Serzh Sargsyan announced that he had changed his mind — clearly influenced by Russia — and would instead pursue Eurasian Union membership. And Armenia joined in 2014, just a day after the union was created.

Armenia’s economic ties with Russia were already close. It exports nearly all its cheese there, for example. So in some ways, Eurasian Union membership has had little economic impact. And some believe that signing the EU deal would have meant a lot more pain than its backers acknowledge, as Armenia complied with tougher European quality-control measures and other codes.