BRI cash crash; Swiss skullduggery; brave Danes and cowardly bankers
Hello, and welcome to China Influence Monitor, a weekly newsletter published by CEPA and Coda Story and edited by me, Edward Lucas. We track the westward footprint of China’s influence operations, and point you towards this week's best (and worst) coverage.
In this issue: China’s secret grip on Switzerland, Wolf Warrior diplomacy targets Denmark, HSBC caught out over Hong Kong, plus what we’re reading — and what we’ve been writing.
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Chinese funding for foreign infrastructure projects shrivelled to just $4 billion last year, down from $75 billion in 2016, according to an analysis by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, first reported in the FT. This is a game-changer. For years, China’s ever-open wallet funded influence operations all over the world, chiefly as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. But the projects were costly, murky and overhyped (see this take on China-Europe rail connections). As China pulls back, can Western lenders seize their chance?
Chinese police agents have since 2015 been allowed to conduct operations against Chinese people living in Switzerland — and quite possibly in other Schengen countries too. Now human-rights campaigners at SafeguardDefenders have uncovered the actual text of the secret deal, first brought to light by the NZZ am Sontag newspaper in August. The scheme would fit neatly into China’s “Fox Hunt” program, which pressures critics and troublemakers to return home under the guise of anti-corruption investigations. Swiss officials tried to conceal details of the “readmission agreement,” which expired on December 7 — and there’s now a (belated) row about whether to renew it.