Gogi Kamushadze

newsletter

Beijing’s 17+1 Summit Flop; Britain fumes over Chinese spies

Hello, and welcome to China Influence Monitor, a weekly newsletter published by CEPA and Coda Story and edited by me, Edward Lucas. We track the westward footprint of China’s influence operations, and point you towards this week's best (and worst) coverage. 

In this issue: Lithuania derails the 17+1 summit, Beijing bets on vaccines and Britain wakes up to spies and lies.

“The East is Red” is a popular Communist Party ballad. Make that “Red-faced,” after the failure of China’s  17+1 supposed showcase summit with central and east European leaders this week. 

What went wrong? 

First, the turnout. Six of the 17 countries defied instructions to send their prime minister or presidents to the Chinese-led forum. That was a personal snub to Xi Jinping, who hosted the (virtual) summit in person. The awkward squad comprised Estonia, Latvia, and (the ringleader) Lithuania, plus Romania, Slovenia and Bulgaria.

Second, Chinese arm-twisting did not deter the rebels. Lithuania’s ambassador (and her Estonian colleague) were hauled into the foreign ministry in Beijing at a quarter to midnight to receive (and ignore) a dressing-down. 

Third, the agenda was a shambles. The timing of the hurriedly convened summit was announced only early in the morning of the day itself: February 9. Rather than staying on message to praise China’s wisdom and leadership, several participants took the opportunity to grumble about market access or carbon emissions.

Fourth, results were flimsy. Xi said China would import $170 billion worth of goods and double the purchase of east European agricultural products over the next five years. But there was no mention of next year’s summit. A vague line-on-the-map infrastructure announcement of the “China-Europe Land-Sea Express Line,” linking the Chinese-owned port of Piraeus in Greece with the Hungarian capital Budapest, inspired nobody. The communique (link in Chinese) focussed mainly on the Western Balkans, and much of the rest was on scintillating lines such as: “Protocol…on the inspection, quarantine and veterinary hygiene requirements of Lithuanian wild marine aquatic products exported to China.”

Three reasons why we believe the summit failed:

  • The Beijing authorities’ genocidal human rights record and bullying foreign policy are unpopular. Inviting Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus has observer status in the forum) showed China’s tin ear to regional sensitivities. 
  • New EU rules make murky infrastructure project finance, the hallmark of the 17+1, much riskier.
  • U.S. pressure works. France and Germany may ignore Joe Biden’s message but it resonates in eastern Europe. All the 17+1 but Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Montenegro had joined or expressed support for the previous administration’s Clean Network initiative — in effect banning Huawei from 5G rollouts. 

Most of all, China has failed to deliver. As Andreea Brînză, a Romanian think tanker, noted in the Diplomat: