Gogi Kamushadze

newsletter

Vaccines; Hostages; Spies

Hello, and welcome to China Influence Monitor, a weekly newsletter published by CEPA and Coda Story and edited by me, Edward Lucas. We track the westward footprint of China’s influence operations, and point you towards this week's best (and worst) coverage. 

In this issue: Diplomacy bubbles; Sino-British ties freeze; Germany wakes up (a bit).

DIPLOMACY IS HOTTING UP

President Biden is talking to G7 leaders, largely about China, on Friday. Transatlantic enthusiasms will also be on public view then at a virtual session of the Munich Security Conference. Another landmark: EU foreign ministers have invited US Secretary of State Tony Blinken to their China-focused meeting on Monday. 

Opinion in Europe is clearly shifting. Take these warnings from the shadows:

  • The Dutch intelligence service just assessed Chinese cyber espionage as an “imminent threat”. 
  • Estonia’s spy agency warned in its annual report of tactics including economic leverage, surveillance and elite capture. 
  • Last week Norway’s spooks made similar points. 
  • Even in super-cautious Finland the country’s spymaster, Antti Pelttari, said (unnamed) “authoritarian countries” were trying to “get hold” of its critical infrastructure. 

Outside the spy world, the new Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi, stressed his country’s foreign policy “anchors” (a shift from his predecessor’s flirtation with China). The Icelandic prime minister highlighted human rights worries and the importance of preserving multilateral values.  

The level of public concern is unprecedented. But two factors pull in opposite directions: