Kazakhstan’s wealth won’t go home again
Last year was, let’s face it, a pretty good one for the oligarchs (they always are) but there were at the end some signs of hope on the horizon. There is slow progress towards a minimum global tax rate, and some suggestions that democracies might finally be recognizing they’re up against an existential threat in kleptocracy and need to unite to survive.
I’m not good at predictions, and I am already struggling to keep my New Year’s Resolution of being optimistic, but I think/hope that 2022 will see these two trends continue.
Vladimir Putin’s cudgel-rattling on the borders of Ukraine is focusing Western minds as they haven’t been focused for some time which, combined with a new government in Berlin that doesn’t put the interests of German exporters ahead of almost everything, may mean his gas-fueled bullying may finally lose some of its heft. (While I’m on the subject, I’m a little confused by the logic behind Putin’s policy of threatening to invade Ukraine to dissuade Eastern European countries from joining NATO. It seems a bit like threatening to shoot someone if they buy body armor. If anyone does get it, please drop me a line.)
Of course, the energy price spike that is looming may mean Western governments are prepared to do a deal with anyone to keep the lights on, and I’ll be keeping an eye on that.